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Department of Economics, University of Utah E-mail: The report projects the world energy supply and gross world product global economic output from to It also projects carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels burning and the implied global average surface temperature from to To project the future oil and natural gas production, this report uses Hubbert Linearization as the primary analytical tool.
Hubbert Linearization was first proposed by American geologist M. King Hubbert Hubbert It plots the current production to cumulative production ratio against the historical cumulative production.
It uses the downward linear trend of the current production to cumulative production ratio to determine the ultimately recoverable resources. Past experience suggests that Hubbert Linearization exercise tends to underestimate the ultimately recoverable oil and natural gas resources.
Despite its limitations, Hubbert Linearization provides a useful tool helping to indicate the likely level of ultimately recoverable resources under the existing trends of technology, economics, and geopolitics. There is a high level of uncertainty regarding the future of the world coal production that may be influenced by economics, climate stabilization requirements, as well as resources constraints.
For the future wind and solar electricity consumption, I do not Dissertations port ac uk view course a definite limit on their future potential. However, I assume that the annual installation of wind and solar generating capacity will grow at a progressively slower rate and eventually approach a certain level of maximum.
From toworld primary energy consumption grew at an average annual rate of 1. World oil consumption including biofuels was 4, million tons inaccounting for From toworld oil consumption grew at an average annual rate of 1.
World natural gas consumption was 3, million tons of oil equivalent inaccounting for From toworld natural gas consumption grew at an average annual rate of 2.
World coal consumption was 3, million tons of oil equivalent inaccounting for From toworld coal consumption grew at an average annual rate of 1. World consumption of nuclear electricity was million tons of oil equivalent inaccounting for 4. From toworld consumption of nuclear electricity declined at an average annual rate of 0.
World consumption of hydro electricity was million tons of oil equivalent inaccounting for 6. From toworld consumption of hydro electricity grew at an average annual rate of 3. World consumption of wind and solar electricity was million tons of oil equivalent inaccounting for 2.
From toworld consumption of wind and solar electricity grew at an average annual rate of World consumption of geothermal, biomass and other renewable electricity was million tons of oil equivalent inaccounting for 1.
From toworld consumption of geothermal, biomass and other renewable electricity grew at an average annual rate of 7. From toglobal economic output grew at an average annual rate of 3.
World average energy efficiency was 8, dollars per ton of oil equivalent in From toworld average energy efficiency grew at an average annual rate of 1. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, world carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels burning reached From toworld carbon dioxide emissions grew at an average annual rate of 1.
World average emission intensity of primary energy consumption was 2. From toworld average emission intensity of primary energy consumption declined at an average annual rate of 0.
Figure 1 compares the historical world economic growth rates and the primary energy consumption growth rates from to The primary energy consumption growth rate has an intercept of When economic growth rate rises above zero, an increase in economic growth rate by one percentage point is associated with an increase in primary energy consumption by 0.
R-square for the linear trend is 0. Gross world product in constant international dollars from to is from World Bankextended to using data from IMFStatistical Appendix, Table A1 ; world primary energy consumption from to is from BP Oil World oil production including crude oil and natural gas liquids was 4, million tons Check out Director profiles at University Of Portsmouth, job listings & salaries.
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